Happy New Year! I've been told that I see 2-5 years into the future when it comes to business, technology and social movement ... on the bleeding edge ... what do you think ... have any additions? (Latest version at Predictions.KentonHJohnson.com.)
2013 Predictions:
· Google forcing users to join Google+ to obtain certain Google services will create a backlash. (May 2013) - confirmed (2014)
· Bookstores become search, sale, delivery and review centers for new, used, specialized and rare print and electronic books and periodicals, guiding boomers and other technically-challenged customers, as well as offering other media-related services and products (mid 2013)
· Professionally-shot CD/DVDs for museums, zoos, tourist attractions with profitable traffic – to raise money and create high-quality memories/documentation (Sep 2013)
· Surround, four-wall video centers for like-you-are-there travel, events, meetings, sales showings (Oct 2013)
Past Predictions:
· Future urban traffic signals will be like the computerized San Jose Traffic Control Project (SJTCP, 1967), with detector reliability a major problem - detector reliability still a problem (1988) but many coming to fruition (2000's)
· Use Operations Research techniques to optimize vehicle routing (1971) - confirmed (1975)
· Computer use for lab assignment computations (San Jose State University, 1968) – witnessed general use at University of Colorado (1976)
· Personal Rapid Transit (PRT- paper on Santa Clara County CA transportation, 1971) – Denver Metro's RTD created a plan for PRT system (1972) and residents voted for a sales tax of 1/2% over the six counties … 80% were earmarked for PRT construction (1973) … unfortunately scrapped (probably as internally planned) - Growth (1975)
· Multi-type-criteria decision analysis (thesis, 1970-1973)
· First Colorado chapter of Association for Computing Machinery's Special Interest Group for Scientific Computing(SIGSCI, 1977)
· Adapting modified cricket bowling for baseball pitching (Littleton youth league, 1977) - not adopted, but research on thedangers of baseball-type pitching, especially for youth, has come out this Century strongly in favor of alternatives.
· PCs for engineering firms (3 years before IBM's PC; CCC 1978; international newsletter, ECAN 1979)
· True cost of PCs – 8-10% of hardware cost per month (ECAN, 1980) – well-documented by Intel (2010)
· Understanding (via familiar calculators) and buying PCs (seminars, books, articles, 1981)
· Using spreadsheets (VisiCalc, Lotus then Excel) for contact databases and heavy computing applications, as well as sell personal computers - engineeering clients loved the control and power (ECAN, 1979-) - confirmed for databases(1983), heavy computing applications (1983), and selling PCs (1983)
· Tablet-sized laptops will be popular for speeches, remote reporting via telephone modem as well as general applications (started using TRS-100, $1200, 1983) - confirmed (1986)
· Geeks (vs jocks) rule the free world (lectures, 1985) - confirmed (1998)
· Software marketing via limited trial version (QuickSurf, disks, 1986)
· CrowdFunding for start-up capital (raised $1200 in 2 weeks, in $50, 6-month loans, for business colloquium/networking event, 1992) - pre-cursor to Fund Busting (1995) and KickStarter (2009)
· Mini-resume index card for large networking events (Income Builders Int'l, 1992) - appeared in volume (2000)
· Need for self-esteem reinforcement AV for children - (teamed with experts Lee Poulos and Jack Canfield to help develop and promote, 1993) - appeared later in the decade and beyond (1996)
· Licensed-registered-certified-referral-only wellness network to reduce healthcare costs and improve/save lives (CompWellness: books, 1996; helping bi-partisan Colorado Alternative Medicine bill pass, 1997; holistic first aid for Y2K, 1998; 24/7 800 hotline to ensure holistic care availability, 1998; first national, professional website, 1999) - confirmed and emulated (2000-)
· Google beating Yahoo (1998) - confirmed (2005)
· Content-based search engine optimization (Google Rank 0 to 4 in 12 months, CompWellness.net, 2000)
· Scalable webpages (work on several-sized screens and devices; CompWellness.net and personal/client webpages, 2000) - strongly confirmed (2002)
· Personal domain names for resume, permanent email address and web presence (KentonJohnson.com, 2000) - confirmed(2002)
· Online brochures that are faxable and printable on letter paper or 2-sided cards (SitesCW.KentonHJohnson.com andExperience.KentonHJohnson.com, 2000) - confirmed (2006)
· Computer / mobile skills necessary to survive in business or as skilled worker (2000) - confirmed (2003)
· Holistic homecare for the elderly to extend enjoyable life and greatly reduce costs (mother and CompWellness team, 2004) -confirmed (2008)
· Executive collaborative networking versus selling each other's connections (Collaborator.PSKHJ.com, 2004) - confirmed(2006)
· Web 2.0 marketing (Great Offer, Get Information Today, Market-Market-Market gently - 9:1 info:promo ratio) for the everyman (GOgitMMM™ Report, 2005) - confirmed (2007)
· Abundant use of free sub-domains to organize and enter websites for 100s of pages of authored or referenced webpages (PersonalLinks.KentonHJohnson.com, 2005) - confirmed (2007)
· Residential real estate bubble crash (divested all holdings, 2006) - confirmed (2008)
· Continuously-running pictures - personal, business, stock - as screen savers on all computers in normal surroundings to stimulate memory and brain integration (for mother and family, 2004) - confirmed (2007)
· ObamaCare will be shoved through Congress with little attention to healthcare, wellness, prevention or the people it was supposedly protecting (late 2008) - confirmed (2013)
· Computer-web-mobile-cloud integration (ConsultComm.PSKHJ.com, 2008; in full play on ITCapabilities-2D21C.ProsperSystems.biz, 2012)
· Consulting for equity - Consultant, Advisor, Director or Management Team for startups or operating companies (Collaboration.ProsperSystems.biz, 2009) - confirmed (2011)
· Eco-friendly mineral processing will dominate future mining (nanotechnologies, 2010) - confirmed (2013)
· 7" tablet preference to 8-10" (fits inside jacket pockets better - usually only 5" wide - 2010) - 7" popularity exceeds 10" (late 2013) - jury out on 7" vs 8"
· Collaboration is the key to success for this decade (Blog.ProsperSystems.biz - Collaboration Network, 2011) – appearing more and more in business media, including Huffington Post (2013)
· Nouveau, highly-graphic resumes (evolving KentonHJohnson.com. 2005; corporate online Resume.ProsperSystems.biz, 2013) - confirmed (2011)
Thank you very much, Kenton Johnson (.com) • BRIEF on Prosper Systems (.biz) - note new Corporate Resume
USA 302KentonJ - GoogleVoice: 302-536-8665; transcribed voice messages and text; forwards to mobile and GoogleTalk
